10 Mar 2016 17:33:13
Can anybody tell me how Chelsea are 3/ 1 to win the cup. We are at 8/ 1 yet we are slight favouritest o beat them on Saturday?
11 Mar 2016 09:04:46
Good point, limk. It does seem weird. Probably because odds are a reflection not only of what the bookies believe are the chances of a particular outcome (which should be a rational judgement) , but also how much money is actually bet by punters (which is not so rational) . More people probably bet on who will win the cup than bet on the outcome of a single match, so number of bets outweighs actual evidence when setting odds there. Loads of people have probably had a punt on Chelsea winning the cup, not so many will have backed us (at least not with money - I suspect a lot of neutrals want us to win) . For this one match, the evidence suggests we've got a good chance of beating them, so unless loads of bets are suddenly placed on Chelsea, that's what will determine the odds.