26 Jul 2026 22:36:12
So Al Hilal have officially opened talks with Ndiaye's camp, and here's the reality:
If those conversations go well and Ndiaye signals he's open to the move, this deal has the potential to explode into £100m territory. And that's not exaggeration, it's simply how Saudi clubs operate.
At the moment it's only early discussions, but the key detail is that his representatives are listening. That alone is enough to change the entire dynamic of the negotiation, because once a Saudi club knows a player is open to the idea, they tend to escalate very quickly.
We still hold all the cards. Ndiaye is tied down until 2029, he's central to how the team is set up, and there's no financial pressure to sell. That means any conversation starts at a very high level. Our internal valuation is already around the £70m mark, and that's before you factor in the way Saudi clubs operate. They don't follow European market logic. They pay whatever ends the negotiation. We've already seen them drop £60m on Summerville when Leeds would have accepted far less, and they've repeatedly paid 40–60% above a player's valuation just to get deals done quickly.
Neymar – £78m despite being injured and declining.
Rúben Neves – £47m when Wolves expected £30m.
Malcom – £51m (market value around £25m) .
Sergej Milinković-Savić – £34m with one year left on his deal.
Summerville – £60m when Leeds would've accepted £40–45m.
That's why a fee above £80m is also realistic if talks progress. Once a Saudi club decides a player is a priority, the numbers stop mattering. They simply push until the selling club says yes. And if Ndiaye gives a clear signal that he's open to the move, Everton can, and (hopefully) will, demand stupid money. With the contract length, his importance to the team, and the fact Al Hilal want another marquee signing, the fee could easily climb into the £90m bracket.
The big question is whether £100m is possible, and the honest answer is yes. It's not guaranteed, but it's firmly within the realm of reality. If Ndiaye's camp gives the green light and Al Hilal decide he's the headline addition they want, then £100m becomes the natural end point of the negotiation. Saudi clubs don't negotiate down, they go higher to force acceptance. In that scenario, Everton refusing anything below £90m would likely push the fee into nine figures.
Right now, the chances of a £100m deal sits around the 20–25% mark. If talks with the player go well, that jumps to 50–60%. If Everton dig in and demand a massive fee, it rises again. And if Al Hilal make him their top target, then £100m becomes more likely than not.
In short, if Ndiaye is genuinely open to the move and Al Hilal push hard, this could become one of the biggest transfer fees we have ever seen. £80m+ is realistic. £100m is absolutely possible. It all depends on how the next stage of talks unfold.
{Ed025's Note - great insight there OS, if he was to go it needs to be completed very quickly for me mate, that will give us a bit of time to either replace him or use the funds to strengthen other areas, if it drags on and we miss the boat it could be a long hard season i feel..
26 Jul 2026 23:00:44
You're right that missing the boat would make the season harder, but the situation isn't as slow burning as it looks. This will either ignite fast or die fast, and that's probably the only good thing about dealing with Saudi clubs.
It'll either explode instantly or collapse instantly. Saudi clubs don't do long, drawn out negotiations. They go from "interest" to "here's £90m, take it or leave it" in the space of a day.
{Ed025's Note - good to hear mate...cheers..
27 Jul 2026 00:10:49
Interesting read, OS. I know his representatives have been in touch, but do you think they are doing it on IN's say so or they are just exploring opportunities? If he has given them the green light, then it's a bit surprising, as he is good enough to be playing in the top European leagues with teams that have Champions League to offer him.
If he wants out of Everton, then letting him go to the Saudi league is our best bet, as you say, for top dollar. If that happens, let's hope we spend it wisely and recruit smarter than we previously have, mate.
27 Jul 2026 03:39:16
That's my issue, bluepotato, if we get 100M, what will we do with it? We have needed a right-back and striker for years. Has the fact that we have failed due to not having the funds? I would have thought that other issues like not being in Europe, being seen as a mid-table, rather boring side might have been more of an issue.
So we risk getting rid of an important player and being unable to spend the money. I would rather sell Barry, Patterson, Alcaraz etc.
27 Jul 2026 03:54:24
If he wants to go & we can get near £100 million, then it's a no brainer.
For all his good work earlier in the season, he dropped off massively towards the end. Maybe that's why we did too.
This is our biggest window in the last decade.
It will show the Freidkins' true intent for us. If money is available and Moyes won't spend it, then he has to go. If money isn't available, then, unfortunately, we have more years of dire football & mid table obscurity ahead.
UTFT NSNO. ? ? ?
27 Jul 2026 07:23:08
Great post that Os.
27 Jul 2026 08:36:01
Don't make the assumption that if we get 100m for him, then that means we will have 100m to spend on other players. There is still the Burnley issue to sort out, and the owners may want to hold part of that money back to cover that.
27 Jul 2026 10:39:58
On the question about his representatives, agents rarely "explore" Saudi interest on their own. Saudi clubs don't operate like European ones, they don't send out feelers or test the water. They go straight to the player's camp and ask one thing, is he open to the move? If the camp engages, it's because the player hasn't shut it down. That doesn't mean Ndiaye is pushing for a transfer, but it does mean he hasn't dismissed it. And that's the part that surprises people, because he's absolutely good enough for Champions League football in Europe. But players don't always think in straight lines. Some see Saudi as a short term financial move, some see it as a chance to reset, and some simply want out of their current situation. If Ndiaye has given even a soft green light, that's enough for Al Hilal to escalate, but has has also stated in the past thay he wants to play in the Champions League which he won't get in Saudi.
On the "what do we do with £100m? " point, that's the real concern. A huge fee doesn't automatically mean a huge budget. We've needed a right back and a striker for years, and it hasn't been purely a money issue. Part of it has been recruitment strategy, part of it has been the club's reputation, and part of it has been managers wanting certain profiles that weren't available. Even if £100m comes in, it doesn't guarantee we suddenly solve everything. And as Brassington said, the Burnley situation still hangs over us. The Friedkins might decide that a chunk of any windfall goes straight into stabilising the club rather than straight into transfers.
That's why this window is massive. It's not just about Ndiaye, it's about whether the Friedkins actually back Moyes, and whether Moyes is willing to spend aggressively if the money is there. If we sell Ndiaye for huge money and then don't reinvest properly, it tells you everything about where the club is heading. If we sell him and rebuild smartly, it shows intent. And if we refuse to sell him and still strengthen, that's another statement entirely.
As for the drop off in his form, that's fair. He wasn't the same player in the last stretch of the season, and maybe that's part of why this situation has even opened up. But selling him only makes sense if the timing, the fee, and the reinvestment all line up. If any of those three things fail, we weaken ourselves.
So the real question isn't "should we sell Ndiaye? ", it's "what does selling Ndiaye tell us about the Friedkins, Moyes, and the direction of the club? " Because this window will reveal more about our future than any statement or interview ever will.